Politics
Between American Bombers, Russian Abandonment, Chinese Silence, and Israeli
Iran at a Crossroads
Cover issue
L G Durgham Zuhair Fakhri
A Nation on the Brink
Iran stands at a historic and perilous juncture, facing an unprecedented wave of military and political threats. With Russia openly stepping back, China maintaining a strategic silence, massive U.S. military movements, and Israel closely monitoring the situation, Tehran finds itself engulfed in a multi-faceted crisis with limited, complex, and potentially dangerous options.
Oman: The Cautious Mediator
The Sultanate of Oman, known for its neutral diplomacy, has announced it will host a crucial round of negotiations this Saturday between the U.S. envoy and Iran’s Foreign Minister. The choice is no surprise—Muscat maintains strong ties with both sides and is deeply invested in avoiding a regional war that would have devastating consequences, especially for the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states.
The Negotiators: Strategy Meets Surprise
The American Side: Steven Witkoff
In a move that shocked many, President Donald Trump appointed his close friend, Jewish-American real estate mogul Steven Charles Witkoff, as Special Envoy to the Middle East.
• Born in 1957, New York.
• Founder of the Witkoff Group.
• No prior diplomatic or political experience.
• Recently involved in brokering a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.
• A well-known financial supporter of Israel.
The Sultanate of Oman, known for its neutral diplomacy, has announced it will host a crucial round of negotiations this Saturday between the U.S. envoy and Iran’s Foreign Minister. The choice is no surprise—Muscat maintains strong ties with both sides and is deeply invested in avoiding a regional war that would have devastating consequences, especially for the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states.
The Negotiators: Strategy Meets Surprise
The American Side: Steven Witkoff
In a move that shocked many, President Donald Trump appointed his close friend, Jewish-American real estate mogul Steven Charles Witkoff, as Special Envoy to the Middle East.
• Born in 1957, New York.
• Founder of the Witkoff Group.
• No prior diplomatic or political experience.
• Recently involved in brokering a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.
• A well-known financial supporter of Israel.
His nomination has infuriated Tehran, which views the decision as a deliberate provocation at a highly sensitive time.
The Iranian Side: Abbas Araghchi
Representing Iran is Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, a veteran diplomat with deep experience in international negotiations.
• Born in Tehran, 1962.
• Holds a Ph.D. from the United Kingdom.
• Former IRGC officer.
• Served in diplomatic roles in Finland and Japan.
• Chief negotiator on Iran’s nuclear file.
• Known for strategic foresight and seasoned negotiation skills with the West.
The Iranian Side: Abbas Araghchi
Representing Iran is Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, a veteran diplomat with deep experience in international negotiations.
• Born in Tehran, 1962.
• Holds a Ph.D. from the United Kingdom.
• Former IRGC officer.
• Served in diplomatic roles in Finland and Japan.
• Chief negotiator on Iran’s nuclear file.
• Known for strategic foresight and seasoned negotiation skills with the West.
Washington’s Demands: The Impossible List
The U.S. has tabled a series of conditions tantamount to Iran’s complete surrender of its nuclear ambitions and regional influence, including:
• Full dismantlement and destruction of Iran’s nuclear reactors and associated facilities.
• Handover of all nuclear-related documents to the U.S.
• Deportation of Iranian nuclear scientists to American custody.
• Total disarmament of Iran’s missile program and destruction of weapons factories.
• Elimination of the drone arsenal and its production lines.
• Dissolution of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
• Unrestricted access for international inspection teams to all military and security sites.
• Immediate cessation of military support to Iran’s regional proxies.
• Complete withdrawal of Iranian military forces abroad.
• Termination of the Islamic Revolution’s export program and anti-U.S./Israel rhetoric.
The U.S. has tabled a series of conditions tantamount to Iran’s complete surrender of its nuclear ambitions and regional influence, including:
• Full dismantlement and destruction of Iran’s nuclear reactors and associated facilities.
• Handover of all nuclear-related documents to the U.S.
• Deportation of Iranian nuclear scientists to American custody.
• Total disarmament of Iran’s missile program and destruction of weapons factories.
• Elimination of the drone arsenal and its production lines.
• Dissolution of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
• Unrestricted access for international inspection teams to all military and security sites.
• Immediate cessation of military support to Iran’s regional proxies.
• Complete withdrawal of Iranian military forces abroad.
• Termination of the Islamic Revolution’s export program and anti-U.S./Israel rhetoric.
International Reactions: A Web of Interests
Russia: Calculated Withdrawal
• Moscow formally declared it is not obligated to defend Iran, citing the absence of a mutual defense pact.
• Secured American guarantees to raise oil prices, offsetting its losses from the Ukraine war.
• Agreed to assist logistically in dismantling Iran’s nuclear infrastructure.
• Received trade incentives and customs exemptions from Washington.
China: Strategic Silence
• Beijing has maintained a neutral stance while closely observing Gulf developments.
• Sees U.S. entanglement in the region as an opportunity to expand its global economic footprint.
• Biding its time, eyeing a moment to refocus efforts on reclaiming Taiwan.
• Avoids direct confrontation but quietly reaps geopolitical gains.
The Gulf States: Cautious Support and Conditional Backing
The Gulf nations — particularly Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, and Kuwait—remain watchful as U.S.-Iran tensions escalate.
Russia: Calculated Withdrawal
• Moscow formally declared it is not obligated to defend Iran, citing the absence of a mutual defense pact.
• Secured American guarantees to raise oil prices, offsetting its losses from the Ukraine war.
• Agreed to assist logistically in dismantling Iran’s nuclear infrastructure.
• Received trade incentives and customs exemptions from Washington.
China: Strategic Silence
• Beijing has maintained a neutral stance while closely observing Gulf developments.
• Sees U.S. entanglement in the region as an opportunity to expand its global economic footprint.
• Biding its time, eyeing a moment to refocus efforts on reclaiming Taiwan.
• Avoids direct confrontation but quietly reaps geopolitical gains.
The Gulf States: Cautious Support and Conditional Backing
The Gulf nations — particularly Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, and Kuwait—remain watchful as U.S.-Iran tensions escalate.
Despite public differences in tone, their core approach converges on several key points:
• Saudi Arabia & the UAE: Implicit Support for U.S. Escalation
• Riyadh and Abu Dhabi back efforts to curtail Iran’s regional power, especially in Yemen, Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon.
• View American pressure as a strategic opportunity to weaken Tehran’s reach.
• Nonetheless, both seek to avoid a full-scale war that could destabilize the Gulf.
• Bahrain: Aligned with Riyadh
• Closely mirrors Saudi Arabia’s stance due to deep political and military ties.
• Faces domestic security threats linked to Iran, prompting strong support for any deterrent action.
• Kuwait, Qatar, Oman: Balance and Diplomacy
• Kuwait promotes moderation and dialogue.
• Qatar, despite calm ties with Iran, seeks to preserve its strategic alliance with Washington.
• Oman continues its historic role as mediator, opposing military escalation and warning of catastrophic consequences.
• Saudi Arabia & the UAE: Implicit Support for U.S. Escalation
• Riyadh and Abu Dhabi back efforts to curtail Iran’s regional power, especially in Yemen, Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon.
• View American pressure as a strategic opportunity to weaken Tehran’s reach.
• Nonetheless, both seek to avoid a full-scale war that could destabilize the Gulf.
• Bahrain: Aligned with Riyadh
• Closely mirrors Saudi Arabia’s stance due to deep political and military ties.
• Faces domestic security threats linked to Iran, prompting strong support for any deterrent action.
• Kuwait, Qatar, Oman: Balance and Diplomacy
• Kuwait promotes moderation and dialogue.
• Qatar, despite calm ties with Iran, seeks to preserve its strategic alliance with Washington.
• Oman continues its historic role as mediator, opposing military escalation and warning of catastrophic consequences.
Shared Gulf Concerns:
• Potential attacks on oil infrastructure and vital facilities.
• Fears of refugee influxes and economic disruption if conflict erupts.
• Memories of the 2019 Aramco strikes—feared to repeat with greater force and scope.
Iran’s Position: Calculated Maneuvering
• Tehran is playing for time but increasingly recognizes the limits of its flexibility.
• Likely to offer symbolic concessions to ease U.S. pressure.
• May be forced to abandon some regional proxies.
• Could propose lucrative economic deals to Washington.
• Open to joint military-security cooperation in the region.
• Might halt its revolutionary slogans against the U.S. and Israel.
• Preserving the regime remains Tehran’s ultimate priority, even if it means sacrificing prior regional gains.
U.S. Military Posture: Countdown to Conflict
• Over 300,000 U.S. troops are now stationed around Iran.
• Half of America’s regional air power is focused on Iranian targets.
• Aircraft carriers and naval destroyers are in offensive positions.
• Trump made it plain: “Saturday is decision day—negotiations, or strikes the world has never seen.”
• Potential attacks on oil infrastructure and vital facilities.
• Fears of refugee influxes and economic disruption if conflict erupts.
• Memories of the 2019 Aramco strikes—feared to repeat with greater force and scope.
Iran’s Position: Calculated Maneuvering
• Tehran is playing for time but increasingly recognizes the limits of its flexibility.
• Likely to offer symbolic concessions to ease U.S. pressure.
• May be forced to abandon some regional proxies.
• Could propose lucrative economic deals to Washington.
• Open to joint military-security cooperation in the region.
• Might halt its revolutionary slogans against the U.S. and Israel.
• Preserving the regime remains Tehran’s ultimate priority, even if it means sacrificing prior regional gains.
U.S. Military Posture: Countdown to Conflict
• Over 300,000 U.S. troops are now stationed around Iran.
• Half of America’s regional air power is focused on Iranian targets.
• Aircraft carriers and naval destroyers are in offensive positions.
• Trump made it plain: “Saturday is decision day—negotiations, or strikes the world has never seen.”
Conclusion: A Defining Moment for Iran
Iran today faces one of the most critical and precarious moments in its modern history. Abandoned by its strategic allies, Russia and China, in a decisive hour, Tehran must navigate an increasingly hostile landscape. Moscow, true to its historical pattern, has once again chosen pragmatism over loyalty, just as it did with former Soviet republics and Middle Eastern allies. Beijing, for its part, is content to let Washington bleed resources while quietly advancing its own interests.
As American forces encircle Iran and Israel eyes precision strikes on nuclear facilities, Tehran can no longer afford to stall. With President Trump declaring a final deadline for negotiations—coupled with threats of unparalleled military action—the Iranian leadership now faces a fateful choice. The decisions made in the coming days could reshape the Middle East for years to come.
Iran today faces one of the most critical and precarious moments in its modern history. Abandoned by its strategic allies, Russia and China, in a decisive hour, Tehran must navigate an increasingly hostile landscape. Moscow, true to its historical pattern, has once again chosen pragmatism over loyalty, just as it did with former Soviet republics and Middle Eastern allies. Beijing, for its part, is content to let Washington bleed resources while quietly advancing its own interests.
As American forces encircle Iran and Israel eyes precision strikes on nuclear facilities, Tehran can no longer afford to stall. With President Trump declaring a final deadline for negotiations—coupled with threats of unparalleled military action—the Iranian leadership now faces a fateful choice. The decisions made in the coming days could reshape the Middle East for years to come.
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